Hi all, wow a lot of post since I've been off the beaten trail. I came to town today and found a Starbucks for WiFi..
This morning i sold some fslr 120's for 3.5% return. With FSLR trading around 154.62 I like this trade. Earns later in the option month but plenty of time.
I also did some ISRG. Trading around 332 - I sold some 290's. Only 2.5% return but with earns out of the way i like it.
Not many trades that look good right now. Anybody have some good ones?
40 comments:
Sold March GDX 32 Puts.
Hi Jerry,
SHLD did a Preannouncement 1-11 Earnings after Feb18
Sears Holding (SHLD $76.56 +5.96) provided Dec total Same Store Sales down 1.7%, with Kmart +2.3% and Sears Domestic -6.0%.
Additionally, the company issued upside guidance for the fourth quarter saying it expects to see earnings in the range of $3.39 to $4.12, well above the $3.09 Thomson Reuters consensus.
LVS Feb puts for the $35 strike are at .14-.16 which gives 3.9% return and about 22% cushion.
Looks good except LVS has a confirmed earnings rpt @ 2/3/11.
Jerry -- your ISRG 290 put is only about 13% below the underlying (332 when you sold; it closed Monday at 328) What went into your thinking for choosing to go less than your 20% guideline?
Did some TCK today. I was gone most of the day and so i put a order to fill on Sunday. I just checked and it filled :)
Monthly
TCK - $59.00 / Strike 45 / Premium .22 / 4.66% return roughly.
No Earnings
No news since Jan 19
everything seems to checkout. I also used them last month and it expired worthless for the same premium.
Hi Jim, yes i did go against my 20% rule but with isrg already posting earns i feel ok. I've used them several times over the past year of two. With 40 points of cushion i will keep an eye on it.
Fulgore,
I hate to sound like a broken record but Earnings Whisper shows TCK has a confirmed earnings release date of 2/8/11 after the close.
ed
Jerry, interesting book and adds to my option selling weapons. Thanks for being open with your trading!
With the recent pullback I like
SLV - 26.36 /strike 21/premium .07/3.3% return
low priced etf...but high liquidity!
Brian, at the bottom of the last thread, asked how to find candidates. I've been using a couple screens:
mtrig.com - $15/mo or $160/yr and can screen for NPs with selectable settings for probability of assignment, OTM, ROI, exp. date, sectors. Only thing I wish it had was select for no earnings between now and expiry. I emailed and was told they are hoping to have this available in a few months. I do use this. If you subscribe and cancel within 15 days they will refund 100%.
poweropt.com - $60/mo or $600/yr. Did the 2 week free trial and found there was a lot there. Liked the backtest feature and how you can sort by a lot of different parameters. I didn't sign up though.
thanks bobj.....actually i googled for a options scanner and found that the one i was looking at was free at tradeking and i have one of my accounts there.....its looks decent...the scanner costs normally $70/month from ivolatility.com.....
everything i could find had earnings coming up...except
esi 57.5strike Bid.36 margin$580per contract ROI 6.2% - just reported but overhang on industry for for-profit education
SHLD :+)
Can anybody tell me if it is possible to put a stop loss on a vertical put spread.Either on the premium or maybe the underlying,I don't know, my brokerage firm tells me it is to diffucult to do. Thanks for any advice.
Just sold some FEB AAPL 295 for .90 but with only 43 pts (13%) cushion.
I violated the 20% Crumbs cushion rule, since this is a superior quality company whose earnings and the news on Steve Jobs is already out -- so I felt really good about this play. In fact I just bought back some JAN Weeklys 305 I sold last Friday for a nice, quick profit (sold at .48 Friday bought back at .04 today. 1.4% profit in 3 trading days).
APPL 295 Margin ROI = 3%
93% Probability of Expiration.
Uptrending chart.
Solid Company - consensus target is 420.
Last time below 295 was Oct 12.
Ed, Thanks for the information. I will keep an eye on it. It is weird cause Think or Swim does not show me an earnings symbol for TCK.
Interesting trade in PROSHARES ULTRA DJUBS CRUDE OIL (UCO):
Leading the ETF's option activity today are the July 11 puts, as 3,500 of the contracts were sold on the bid price for $1.50. Open interest was just 477 contracts, indicating that this is a new open position.
UCO closed at 10.92
Crude futures contracts had huge volumes in Feb puts, which increased premiums by 400%.
I just joined this forum after reading the book (great book). I have been trading options for a while (condors, spreads etc) but have not used NP yet. I initiated my first crumb trades this week but I still was not ready to take the NP plunge so I lowered my ROI target and did them a spreads. Mine were
DECK: Sold the Feb60 bought FEB 55 for .22
WLT: Sold the Feb95 bought the Feb85 for .23
ESI: Sold the Feb57.5 bought the Feb 50 for .22
Regards
rm
Has anyone considered selling VIX puts? The feb. 15 and 16 strikes have a nice premium and it looks like the VIX has pretty much bottomed out.
I got stung big-time by VIX puts/calls last year. It moves with the speed of a panther and the volatility and premium spikes are a wonder to behold.
Tough the VIX at your own risk!
rhmoptions,
Be careful with WLT - earnings next Wednesday on Feb 2...be cautious.
Hi all, I think I will get some of the SHLD probably using the 62.5's. Only about 2+% but that is a decent return for 3 weeks.
Welcome aboard Rymooptions.
Some good trades starting to show up as earnings start getting behiind us.
Just sold some AAPL 325 Feb WEEKLYS for .55
19 pts cushion for the next 8 days
ROI Margin is 1.7% for 8 days
ToS Probability of Expiration is 91%
Not exactly Crumbs but for an 8 day trade, I like it, especially since we're post AAPL earnings and that Verizon iPhone is launching Feb 10, after weeklys expiration, so I don't see AAPL dropping much, if at all.
I will sell immediately if premium drops to .05 or less, for a .50 profit.
Still getting used to the Weeklys trading. I like initiating these on Thursdays/Fridays when there's about a week left til expiration.
Got a few NFLX 190 for 1+day .25 Cross my fingers.
Jerry, I hope you didn't get stuck in some snow while returning from your trip?? Cam and and a couple thousands got stuck for 9+ hours at beltway last night (Reached home 2:20am). Stress and blood pressure up in the sky; drivers left vehicles in the middle of the road, at the sides, ditches,...the worst you could have ever imagined LOL
hey hannah.. i got in on 190 on nflx at .27 and within an hour i was out at .12... awesome trade i also sold rimm 52.5 for .15 for a 2.8 percent trade. just not much to trade. i cashed out of 110 first solar earlier in the week because i sold them for .50 and bought them back four days later for a .25...
Hey Fishchamp,
You did good. In case AMZN sinks when the ER comes out after market closes, I am out too.
Yea, I couldn't find anything good for the last 2 weeks...except a small losing trade with AMZN 160 (if I hold on long enough till today it would be great :)..)But discipline takes priority.
Sold ESI FEB 57.5 Puts for .27
STATS:
Current Price ESI is 69.55
12 pts cushion (18% OTM)
Analysts Target Price is 75
4.5% ROI on Maintenance Margin
Earnings done - next in April
ToS Probability of Expiration = 92%
take a look at FCX - just sold the FEB 90 with 16% cushion with 2.9% return
Hi John - thanks somehow i missed the earnings ill will be actively protecting thatand mighyt event close it out. Cheers
hey hannah - my commute from germantown to frederick, luckily, wasn't as horrible as yours; it was amazing, though, driving this morning to see all the abandoned cars and trucks---- crazy
Hey John I like your esi trade. I'm still debating that trade but I have been keeping a good eye on it. Hope I don't miss the boat but can see some potential. I may jump on that tomorrow. Good trades are hard to find right now.
ESI is definitely at the low end of its chart. Hopefully won't go any lower. It's PE is only 6. Quite under-valued for sure.
FCX splits on Feb 2nd, what happens with the options?
if it's a 2 for 1 stock split the 90's turn into 45's and will double the number of open contracts----- but somehow I missed that news--- thanks for the heads up Nicky
i 1st mentioned ESI above but reason to be cautious is there is overhang with if these for profit education co's will still qualify for student loans ....if not busines model goes south..reversed right at 200dma and today with downgrade not almost at its basing area....its just put premiums are higher due to fear over any gov't news regarding this sector
Hey Newport-- It's snowing again, hope you won't get stuck again in snow today - Friday :) We all stay home.
Still looking hard for reasonable safe trade....
Good weekend traders
im looking at AMZN down here as out of money put premiums are up....good #'s but not exactly a cheap stock
ESI downgraged...shares down substantially...bummer.
I guess you can consider a lower strike with more cushion now
John, Thanks for the info. I put it in my list. I just thought we should be very careful with break-down stocks (esp if they are in weak sectors), they can go much lower before reversal - - you always hear those chartists who love technical analysis saying the charts below sma or ema such and such -- and short them. I had been there many times catching the falling knives.
Just my two cents.
Hannah
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