Quite a few of the major companies have reported and generally they confirm that earnings are still getting better. I still expect the fall season to be pretty good and a good Christmas season.
A heads up regarding the options business.
Don’t forget that you have to run your option trading as a business.
If your stock is dropping, it is probably not a good stock to use.
If analyst are downgrading your stock, it is probably not a good stock to use.
If your returns are too good, your strike is probably not a good one to use.
Be alert to the warning signs and trade smart.
I have open calendar spreads in the following stocks
MSFT, MCD, AAPL & KO. These spreads give a good return each week. Take a look and see if they work for you. Good luck
75 comments:
Jerry, it seems like you have moved towards calendar spreads, have you found it gives a better roi?
@liong91 - the maintenance is 500 per contract approximately.
@DMK ok I will email you and see what we can do. All I really do on IB is input my spreads. All my charting and watching is done with ToS and also some TD Waterhouse for comparison.
@rhmoptions - keep up the good work. Please make sure you always keep yourself in check. Feeling untouchable is dangerous in this game.
DMK; Yes i have rotated more into cal spreads. I feel I can get a ROI of 2% per week with less risk in this market. But there are no free rides. Each style has it's downside. However the cal spread doesn't have a big downside. And in this market that has come so far, I consider that a plus.
I have added some plays that I opened today. KO & ORCL Both good stocks that have a record i like.
Jerry
Hello all regarding my LYB position I logged in today to see this:
10/24/11 - Expired - 10 - LYB Call -
Lyb Oct 22 2011 31.00 Call
So my in the money by .02 calls expired.
When selling puts, even if my position was in the money by 0.01 I always got put on, I guess call assignments work differently??
@Fulgore. Yes I am always very cautious. Today I opened the 1110/1085 weekly SPX put for 0.15. 10.3% cushion "Should be ok"
Cheers
RHMoptions
OK Guys. I understand the concept of a bite of cheese "crumbs" but what is left after commissions on an SPX 1110/1085 weekly put at
.15??? How many contracts are you trading???
Got my feet wet with a 10 contract MSFT program. Nice weekly ROI. I also placed a 12 contract SPX 1155/1145 weekly spread for .35 which is what I usually trade. Should be OK with a 100 point cushion.
Caught up on everyones postings over the weekend after returning from vaca. Thanks for all your info.
@TAXMAN
I am trading 20 contracts (50K maintanance). After commissions that amounts to $260 on 50K or 0.52%. I target usually 2-3% per month and sit WAY back in cushion for a high probability of success. So far since late June (this is the 19th week now) it has held up even thru some of the worst stuff.
regards
Wow Nicky! you are really lucky with that Div. announcement I would have bet anything you would be short today. Some times a little luck is in order, Today I sold a Nov. 80/160 NFLX Strangle on top of short Nov 135 calls. Now that's big balling! with luck :+)
Raging Bull, You are really living dangerously with NFLX. I wish you the best.
Looks like NFLX is down sub $100 in AH. Maybe worth a put spread tomorrow?
tk
Should be close to a push I'm short 10 calls and 5 puts. Sure would have liked to see 80 hold. Anyone buying at 40 gezzzzzzzzzzzz!
If not a push I have three weeks to sell calls against it.
DMK.. you need to look all the way out to Jan. to find puts under 50
They will add strikes over the week end most likly.?
Thanks Nicky. The Market looks way overbought here and I still think we are in trouble liner term out to 2013 or until Europe gets their house in order. I'm going to be looking to buy some 2012 puts on the SPY Cam and sell weeklies against it sort of just like Jerry is doing with his MSFT calls.
@ Jerry,
I am responding to your last comment directing to me in your previous thread... Thanks for your sound advice.. With a few days hindsight, the lesson i learnt is that greed will always get you, as stated in your book. i was heading for my best month so far this year and this clouded my judgment. I became negligent and too confident that a stock that treated me good up to now was not going to let me down despite a few warning signs in the press. I therefore sold again the puts (naked) and even though i had over 30% cushion it just got eaten away very quickly.. I thought that as i was close to expiry, i could pull it off but, no, not this time.
The good thing is that i lost just a little more than the gains for the month of Oct. Therefore i sold some new weekly positions (not gmcr) and if all goes well i should have gained back my losses by the end of the week..
So all in all a good lesson and reminder that one should treat options with respect and when it all seems to good to be true... Well as everyone know, it probably is !
I talked about my experience to a relative who used to be an options trader for Morgan Stanley and he told me that if you can make 90% of your original gain and cut the risk of your option by buying back early, you should not wait... I was in that situation with GMCR but i thought i didn't want to pay commission fees to buy back to save one week.... Greed again !!!
To everyone. I have been trading options, credit spreads, etc for about 7 years. I also subscribe to a few option writing newsletters. Some rules of thumb that I have picked up in my travels: When placing credit spreads, try to keep your DELTA below 10. Delta can be used to represent not only the expected change in the price of the option with a corresponding move in the price of the underlying stock/index, but also be used as a probability guide of a succesful trade. ie, a delta of 10 can also mean that your trade has a 90% chance of succes. The newsletters also state to try and close a trade for .05-.10 if you can. Take the money and run ASAP. These rules may not apply with Jerry's method of trading, because he gets so far away from the underlying stock/index price that Delta should not apply. Another rule is to close a weekly spread it the delta exceeds 40 and close a monthly spread if the delta exceeds 25.
Remember your account is your inventory. Lose it and you lose your ability to profit.
Hi all, again a lesson in trying to catch a falling knife. Yesterday you could see that NFLX had dropped around 200 points in three months. You are flirting with disaster using these stocks. There are plenty of good stocks out there that give consistent 1-2-3% a week. Maybe a strangle etc. will negate a loss.. But why?
The Dow is up around 1000 pt in a month.. If that isn't a heads up that something is 'amiss' then you might need to remove your head from wherever it is hiding. Europe is a mess! Now Italy and Greece aren’t helping? Oil price is rising. Consumer sentiment is dropping like a nflx stock. Traders I am worried that a major correction is coming for us. I am not one to try and predict this stuff, but even with good earns from most companies things are out of whack.
I am fully invested but more cautious than normal. Trade careful. Use good stocks, keep lots of cushion, this is not the time to take a ‘flyer’.
Good luck.
jerry
Im in the MSFT cal trade with LEAP strike of 25 and weekly at 27. Working just great.
The APPL trade is interesting but can someone tell me what strikes you are using for the LEAP and the weekly???
Thanks
@Jerry et al, I agree with Jerrys comments as you can tell from my previous post. I bought mar2012 spy $114 puts for 5.50. This a great hedge if you are long and you can sell weeklys against it which will pay for them in a month or two.
NFLX sure is an example of what can happen Jerry, and I don't think any stock is safe and why I have been leaning towards using indexes or etfs instead. Thoughts?
DMK; I don't very often use index positions. I have used the spx some but i have rotated into stocks i trust to withstand and ca-ca. But they (index) are certainly viable.
Tax; I have some MSFT calendar's also. I am using the Jan 2013 and the 25 strike. I have about 280 of them so I trust them to not drop to much below that and still be able to sell weeklys.
Pascal, Before hooking up with jerry, I was primarily trading 10 point SPX and RUT call & put credit spreads. When placing the spread, I would try to make sure the delta of the short strike was below 10 and ideally around 7-9. On a weekly, that usually gave me a credit of .35-.50 depending on the VIX. If the index got close to the short strike and its delta got close to 40 on weeklies and 25 on monthlies, you would close the spread. In a volitile market that happend often and I got burned many times. I like Jerry's method better. Grab a little bite of cheese and live to fight another day. I used to get an ROI of 5-7%per week trading that way, but got burned too many times. It's great in a flat market, but the past several months have been murder.
ie: On Monday, I place a 6 contract SPX 1155/1145 put spread when the SPX was at 1246.34 and got .35, the delta on the short 1155 was 9. My ROI is 2.6%. I then looked for a call spread, but the only strikes open had deltas of 14 and with the SPX at 1246.34, it was to close to what would be the short call. So I passed on that. With more strikes open, I probably would have placed the call spread for another .35, making my weekly ROI around 5%. But I have been burned too many times, and that is when I stmbled on Jerry. I like the idea of sleeping nights, not get greedy, trade lots of contracts and get my bite of cheese week after week like RHM is doing.
Hope that helps. I still like to gamble tho
Jerry what is your strategy when Microsoft drops below the 25 call, do you keep selling calls against it or eventually close the 25 call?
Taxman, yeah i see what you mean thanks for explaining
Pascal, Yes i buy calls on stocks that i plan on owning until near expiration. So even if MDFT drops some i will hold and keep selling calls against them. For this play you are not trying to hit a stock with upward potential. You want a stock that can withstand some selling and also not take off to fast. Upward movement is not all bad as your bought call will gain value also. If needed you can jump ahead and sell the next months call one strike higher and even though you might not make much when doing that, it does jump the end rusults when you close the position.
But don't be in a hurry to roll up as the stock can drop and bring it all back into line.
Trade with caution and use common sense.
@Jerry. I see, I understand thanks
For those doing the INTC spreads, do you plan on rolling up soon? I was selling the 24's but she keeps running away from me! Ex-div is next week as well so I don't want to risk being assigned early. Interested to see what happens the rest of the week...
For INTC, why not roll to next week and on Wednesday see if you're in the money and if so roll to the monthly?
Have I ever mentioned BEWARE of earnings... AMZN down around 38 Points in after hours trading.
Yikes...
Jerry,
I've been going back over past weeks to kind of reverse engineer some trades to see what the outcome would have been when doing calendar spreads with MSFT.
I had been looking at opening both legs of the call on the Monday of each week, then closing both legs on the Friday. In your post a while back you mentioned doing both legs at the same time, but I guess that is not correct?
In looking back, you posted on 10/18 that you had bought the MSFT 1/2013 25 call and had sold the 10/22 weeklies for 26, 27 and 29.
Without knowing exact dates when you bought and sold, I used the open date of 10/17 and the closing on 10/21. Out of that crop, the only one that came out a winner was selling the 27. The others all either lost or broke even.
Can you get a little more specific on how you actually do your trades? I take it you buy and hold a particular LEAP, then sell the weeklies against it over successive weeks. Is there any formula you use to figure your sell price for the week? With your PUT and VPS systems, you had some pretty well-defined sign posts.
For an ITM call on the Friday of expiration, are you getting out of the short and the long position, or do you just roll out the short leg?
From what I see, unless the week ends in just the right sweet spot, you can often end up either having to roll out or just eat it to get out.
Sorry for the treatise, but I'm trying to wrap my mind around the various scenarios so I don't get burned.
Kauai... optimally you will hold the LEAPS until expiration and sell the weeklies against it, rolling up and out when necessary (short leg only).
Kauai, You are sort-of right. I have some MSFT 26-27-28's. Ideally you would have the stock end up right below the strike. But if not there is ALWAYS some money by just rolling into the next week/month at the same strike. You might lose some by rolling up to the next strike but it can / might be compensated by the end result of the Jan 2013 etc. The ideal is a stock that has strikes in one dollar increments (ala msft etc)
In theory each 'next' period will always have more time value than the one that is currently ending. That would let you roll just one point at a time. That is an important point, no matter how high the stock runs, there is always 'time' value in the next period option.
EX: MSFT runs to 35 and I have sold the 26. The next week I will buy to close the 26 on Friday for 9.10 and I will sell the next weeks 26 for 9.25 etc. I would not want to be in that position as I would have rolled up the ‘sold’ strike but maybe not? There is still profit while not rolling up..I hope that helps explain it.
Jerry,
In the MSFT example you give above, what if you get assigned? Wouldn't it throw the whole position/strategy off?
And, what if MSFT stock price falls below 25 (long call)? If it falls to let's say 23, in order to get any premiums on short call 25 or 26, you would have to go out very far. In the case, would you close the long call? Thanks!
@All, I will not open up any spreads until tomorrow. I feel as though this Euro thing will not make investors happy even if there is a semi agreement met today.
There is a downward storm coming as mentioned above. Dow is approaching 12k on what grounding? 1 hint of bad data or report in a world event and i feel as though we are going to drop at least 1000 points in a period of 1 month or sooner.
Rob M, I agree.
Kauai; If you look at a set time block it might mislead you. As stated above, I might sell an option (say the MSFT 26) for .25 then msft goes up and when you look at it later, it seems i have to buy it back for say.. a dollar. yikes, i lost .75 but wait. i am selling next weeks for 1.25 and off it goes again. Always there is more value in the next one than in closing the near one. –well, should always…
SKA; so msft drops to 23, i might sell the 25 option for next week? there will be some value in the next week/ month options. This is why I try to buy the Jan deeper in the money (ITM) and sell a higher one.. Msft buy the Jan 25 sell the near 27. Msft drops some so to get prem I can now sell the 26 or even 25 and not go under water.
Also regarding getting assigned, many ways to look at this. It is nearly always easy to tell if assignment is near. But for whatever reason you do get assigned. so you bought the Jan 25 call. and sold the near 26. Msft goes to 27 you get assigned..
1. you can then exercise the 25 call cost of 25 to you sell it to the other side for 26 make a buck.
2. buy the stock for 25 sell it for 27. profit 2. Sell it to the other side for 26 and make a buck?
3. Several ways it can be handled but as long as you own a lower strike you shouldn't lose and should make money.
You must also remember that they are not linked. The linking is only done when opening them to establish the debit from then on you just own the Jan ? call. Generally not a good idea to leg out trying to make extra money.
clear as muddd?
Fulgore; that is a concern of mine and why I use lower pe stocks. AMZN even with its drop still has a PE of over 100.. Folks, don’t use those if any news is expected (EX; earnings) and do leave LOTS of cushion if using high PE etc stocks.
Jerry,
Thank you for the explanation. So, basically what you are saying is that even if the stock price drops below your long call strike, you will still hold on to your position and wait it out, right?
SKA; Correct, that is why i use stocks with decent PE and a big mkt share. Stocks like VZ or T give better than 5% per week (over 10% in a credit spread this week) and those companies are not going anywhere.
I just closed my Microsoft 27 short call for five cents. What do you say Jerry sell the 26 for October 28 or wait until Friday to make a new sell.
Jerry, do you mean "VZ or T give better than 5% per week" or "month"? I don't see weeklies for T or VZ.
OOOp's I was heading out to golf and had my golf cap on instead of my thinking cap. Correct, only monthly's on those two. But still good prem's.
Pascal; I will be closing some of mine also that the time val is about gone. Thur. next weeks options come on line. So i will be rolling into those before the close if time val is about gone.
Jerry,
I don't follow you in your explanation on how you would not lose money on MSFT if assigned. In exercising MSFT for 25 and selling for 26 you would not come out ahead because you would lose all of your time value in the long call. Am I missing something?
AN ANALOGY TO CONSIDER (FOR SERIOUS TRADERS):
I like to think of this as a business and therefore consider each Put Option as
an employee that requires an interview each and every month prior to
getting hired (i.e. prior to opening a position).
** NOTE: THESE HIRING/FIRING QUESTIONS WILL MAKE MORE SENSE WHEN
YOU READ JERRY’s BOOK. **
PUT OPTION INTERVIEW QUESTIONS NECESSARY TO “HIRE” (i.e Open):
(IDEALLY, MUST ANSWER “YES” TO ALL “RESUME” QUESTIONS)
1. Is the Stock’s Price at least $50?
2. Is the Strike Price at least 20% below the Stock’s Price?
3. Is the “Probability of Expiration” above 90%?
4. Is the ROI of maintenance margin between 3% - 6% ?
5. Is the premium (ROI) at a reasonable level and not too good to be true?
6. Is the stock (and market) in an uptrend (and above 50-day MA)?
7. Do analysts recommend this stock?
8. Is the PE reasonable vs. other stocks in sector?
9. Is earnings report NOT occurring prior to the option’s expiration date?
10. Is the news on the stock good (at least NOT bad nor uncertain)?
11. Is this a good seasonal period for the stock?
12. Are there no doubts about the quality of the stock/company?
Once hired, each employee (i.e. Sold Put Option) must continue to maintain
performance standards else risk being “fired” (i.e. closed).
SITUATIONS WHERE I WILL “FIRE” (i.e. Close) MY PUT OPTION POSITION:
1. If I become doubtful about the position.
2. If bad or questionable news emerges about the company.
3. If the option’s premium doubles.
4. If the stock’s price drops to the option’s strike price.
5. If I become doubtful about the position (Intentionally Repeated).
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS:
1. Do NOT get greedy
2. Do NOT use entire maintenance margin – keep a cushion.
jbl, I believe Jerry means that you are long 25 call (Jan 2013) and short 26 call (Nov 2011). If the stock goes above 27 and you get assigned the short 26 call, you can in turn exercise the long 25 call you own. This means you buy for 25/stock and sell them for 26/stock and thus making 1/stock. I hope this helps.
Hello all, I got in on this MSFT spread today, bought (12) MSFT Jan 19 2013 $25 Calls for $3.49, sold (12) MSFT Oct 28 2011 $26 Calls for $.49, so $4,200 on the buy side and $586 on the sell side, how do you guys calculate ROI? This seems like a high return????
@Nicky, 586:4200=13.95% Wow!!!!!!! don't you just love this ;-)
ska,
Thanks for the explanation, but I understood that part. In exercising the 25 call option you lose $2 in time value. If I had bought the $25 strike for $4 when stock was $27 it has $2 of intrinsic and $2 of time value. The time value is lost if you excercise the option.
Nicky & Pascal
Your ROI calcs are correct but the short 26 strike is now deep in the money, MSFT closed at 26.59 and it expires this Fri. You will now have to roll that short call out to next Fri BEFORE the close tomorrow or get assigned. If MSFT rallies big time on Thurs which the futures say might happen, you won't get much NET premium on the rollout. It seems your largest ROI is when you place the initial position, then your rollouts are a lot smaller, especially if MSFT is deep in the money. Your net on the rollout will at least be TIME value if not INTRINSIC value. But you can do those rollout/rollups for the next 60 weeks. The deeper ITM MSFT gets the less your time value premium will be. If MSFT continues to rally, you might have to roll up a strike and net nothing or do a TWO week rollout when we are close to a monthly expiration week. Remember if MSFT continues to rally and you rollup, your 25 leap is also gaining in value. So what you may lose in weekly ROI you are gaining in the value of your LEAP. I'm in the game of 10 contracts right now. I'm new to Jer's group and I'm testing the waters. Like what I see so far. Good luck
@Taxman You're totally right. I'm glad that I bought my short call back yesterday for five cents so I made a nice return on investment there. Today I'm going to look and see what Microsoft is going to do. It will probably go up and who knows maybe I sell the 28 call.
I just sold the Microsoft 27 call for $.40
nov-4
Pascal
NICE MOVE ON MSFT
Jbl, you're right. Ideally, you would not want to exercise your long 25 call for the reason of loosing any time value. You can instead close them and come out better.
@taxman. Thanks. Do you have Calander spreads running?
I still have to roll McDonald's, I'll probably do that tomorrow.
@Jerry. I still want to start with Coca-Cola how are your calendars spreads in Coca-Cola going?
@everybody. Does anyone have European options?
What a day, MSFT up over 2%, Oct 28 2011 $26 Calls up big, I'm screwed!
Pascal
The only one I have is 10 MSFT. I am short the 27's and will roll them to next week before tomorrows close. I'm waiting for the time value of the ITM calls to get as low as possible. I should have closed them yesterday like you did. I just "found" Jerry a few weeks ago so i am still getting my feet wet. I have been trading SPX & RUT credit spreads for years.
Nicky If you are short the 26's, consider trying an even roll out to next week, or rolling up and "paying" some premium, or bite the bullet and roll up to a 27 and out to the regular Nov 18 option expiration Fri. I just checked on rolling up to the 27's and both rollup options will cost you money.
I think your only options are to roll to next weeks 26 at even, or close the spread competely and start over. Good luck. When in doubt get Jer's opinion.
Thanks for the reply taxman, I own (10) LYB 12/17/11 $35 Calls, I was thinking about selling (12) LYB 11/19/11 $35 Calls to make up for the loss I'm soon to incur with MSFT, it seems like a no lose situation selling the LYB 11/19/11 $35 Calls, if LYB goes over $35, I can exercise the Dec $35s I have, does that sound right?
@Nicky You'll be okay. The last three months Microsoft traded a couple of times at $27.50 and back down to $26 and even lower. Buy your short call back at $1,25 and sell the November 4 26 call for $1.35
@ Taxman Cool I usually set a good to cancel order on my short calls for like five cents so I can take advantage of the temporarily dip and won't miss it when it bounces back up again. When it does go back up I can sell a new weekly for the remaining days or wait until Friday for the new weekly calls
Nicky
I'm leaning towards Pascal's advice right now. Don't over react. Focus only on MSFT. The market is WAY overbought. If it doesn't cost you anything, i would do a break even rollout at 26 into next week and see if the market pulls back after this over reaction to the EU. Then plan your strategy. It is very difficult to plan when you are panicking. Give yourself another week at even. I have to assume that your MSFT LEAP must also be increasing in value.After the rollout, see if it make sense to close the whole cal spread.
Thanks for the replys Taxman, Pascal
I put in the order to roll to Nov 04 $26s, the order is just sitting there @ 0.05 credit, the bid/ask is 0.02/.10 credit.
Finally executed @ 0.05 also STO (10) LYB 11/19 $35 Calls. made $1,190 on those, will make absorbing a loss on MSFT easier if it comes to that.
Looks like 19wks now. The 50k I have been using in maintenance is producing approximately 1500 a month after commission (99.5 % prob each wk)
Lets see how the spx premiums are Monday and see if I can keep the same cushion/probability and grab 0.15.
Cheers
Rhmoptiond
Sorry 1200 a month not 1500.
Cheers
Nicky,
You could have gotten more on the MSFT roll if you had waited until late in the day on Friday when most of your time premium for this week had decayed. You might of gotten .10 or .15 or even more if MSFT dropped tomorrow. Last week I rolled my 27 strike to this week at 3:55 PM for .32. But of course it was not as far in itm as your 26 strike.
I sold 25 of those MSFT26 10/28's last week that are proving difficult to roll. Last week I got .12 which was a disappointment but this week looks like even money. Maybe the next weekly will gain a little tomorrow before the close. Everything else has rolled nicely but I've always wondered if there was a situation where you couldn't get a decent (or any) premium. The down side of calendars when the underlying gains big and fast?
Maybe with the market comeback, it's safer to sell naked puts?
@Jerry did you roll your positions today? How did it go?
@Fulgore thank you.I am testing the SPX spreads.
@All...I Just rolled my MSFT27 Oct 28 to MSFT27 Nov4.Bought for .7 and sold for .29.So .22/4.18=5.26% ROI(about 4.95% net).Take care
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Phew, I'm rolled like a herd of turtles. Got .06 rolling my MSFT 26's from Oct 28 to Nov 4. What will next week bring?
Hey, so your stuck with Nov 4 26's too, I should have stuck to selling puts, all but one of the calls I've written is now in the money, and the one that's not is only .50 away (LYB), and that will surely get there as well, I have to go back to naked puts.
Well a couple of points.
1. Nicky you may find that calendar spreads are not for you? But generally it is a no lose position. Assuming you pick good stocks that have a good pe and maybe dividends. To help support it in bad times.
2. I waited until around noon today and rolled my msft 26 into next weeks 26’ and received .26 credit. I have 50 of them so it was 1300 and now I wait for next week. MSFT has a habit of trading in that range. ( 24- 27) they do have good things going for them and if they break out I will then go out two weeks and jump to the 27etc. Maybe even a month roll out? You have to look at this play as a weekly income and not a bet on MSFT per-se. Each week’s roll out will always have some factor of a gain in it. But many ways to skin an option.
3. Pascal, KO is doing great. I rolled out to next week for a .23 gain.
I opened another position today … XOM, it is turning into a nice play. Stock around 81.5 I bought the Jan 2013 80 for 8.53 & sold the 82.5 nest week for .48 for a 5.6% ROI in a week.
Geeze Jerry, I watched that MSFT almost all day but must have missed around noon. Never saw over .10 tho. I like the calendars, and you are right when you say it is not a play on the underlying stock. Income and whatever the difference between long and the short strikes.
Ihaveotptions
Also if it seem hard to get decent prem's as the underlying stock has moved up..it should be remembered that eventually you get to sell the long one. It might be worth a bunch and that will also make up for lower prem's.
It time for a new post.
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